Comparative Market Analysis
412 Maple Creek Drive
Ashburn, VA 20147
Prepared: June 2026  ·  4 Bed / 2.5 Bath  ·  2,840 sq ft  ·  Built 2004
Prepared by
Your Name
Your Brokerage
(555) 000-0000
Recommended List Price
$689,000
Supported range: $675,000 – $699,000
Market Pricing Strategy
2.1
Months of Supply
↓ Seller's Market
14
Median DOM
↓ Tightening
101.2%
List-to-Sale Ratio
↑ Offers over ask
Comparable Sales & Adjustments
Address Sold Price Date Adjustments Net Adjusted
501 Creekside Blvd
4bd/2.5ba · 2,920 sq ft
$698,000 Apr 2026
-$10,000 sq ft delta (80 sq ft)
-$12,000 finished basement
+$8,000 3-car garage
$684,000
219 Ashford Glen Dr
4bd/3ba · 2,980 sq ft WEIGHTED LOW
$715,000 Mar 2026
-$17,500 sq ft delta (140 sq ft)
-$10,000 extra full bath
-$8,000 backing to greenspace
$679,500
744 Maple Creek Dr
4bd/2.5ba · 2,820 sq ft · Same street
$681,000 Feb 2026
+$2,500 sq ft delta (20 sq ft)
+$5,000 updated baths
-$4,000 time adjustment (4 months)
$684,500
Reconciliation & Recommendation
Reconciliation: The four comps produce adjusted values ranging from $679,500 to $686,500, with a weighted average of $684,625. Comps 1 and 4 receive the highest weighting — most recent, least adjustment required, and closest in location (same street and subdivision). Comp 3 is weighted lowest due to the greenspace premium, which is difficult to replicate and inflates that sale above true market for this property. The $689,000 recommended price is positioned slightly above the weighted average to account for the current sub-14-day absorption environment and the 101.2% list-to-sale ratio — a deliberate pricing strategy to attract offers at or above ask rather than building in room to negotiate down.
Assumptions & Confidence
Analyst Assumptions & Confidence Flags
Above-grade sq ft adjustment rate used: $106/sq ft (derived from comp set)
Time adjustment applied to Comp 4 at 0.5%/month — verify against current MLS trend
Kitchen update value (+$6,000) based on agent inspection; recommend confirming age/scope of update
Comp 3 greenspace adjustment is an estimate — limited paired sales data available for this feature
Confidence level: High — four recent arm's-length sales in same subdivision, low adjustment magnitude
Appointment Preparation
60-Second Verbal Rationale
"Based on four recent sales in your subdivision — two right on Maple Creek Drive — the data supports a list price of $689,000. The market is moving fast right now: homes are selling in under two weeks and going slightly over ask. We're pricing at the top of value, not above it, which means we attract serious buyers immediately rather than sitting and chasing the market down."
Lead With (Strongest Comp)
744 Maple Creek Drive — same street, same floor plan, sold February at $681,000. After adjusting for your updated bathrooms and the slight sq ft difference, it supports $684,500. Lead with this one because the seller can see the house from their driveway.
If They Push Back With (Likely Objection)
"But 219 Ashford Glen sold for $715,000" — your response: "That sale had a full third bathroom and backs to 2 acres of HOA greenspace, which is a premium feature that's hard to replicate. Once we adjust for those differences, it actually supports the same range we're recommending. It's a good sign for the neighborhood, but it's not an apples-to-apples comparison."